Factor12 Rating Leaders: Week 6

by Josh Robbins on May 18th, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Posted In: Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, Factor12, Josh Robbins, Milwaukee Brewers, Sabermetrics, Washington Nationals

The Factor12 Rating (F12) is an analytic measurement utilizing league average performance to compare the value of all MLB pitchers.

Brandon Beachy

(1) Justin Verlander regains the number one F12 Rating after pitching his latest masterpiece (7IP / 2H / 1ER / 1BB / 8K) against the Oakland Athletics.  The 2011 American League Cy Young Award winner holds a 31.009 Factor12 Rating.

(2) Gio Gonzalez has dominated opposing hitters in his last seven outings.  The left-hander has pitched 45 IP / 22H / 8ER / 16BB / 54K over that time period.  Gonzalez currently trails the F12 top position by only .06 points.

(3) Brandon Beachy vaults into the number three spot after pitching his first career complete game shutout against the Miami Marlins on Wednesday night.  The Atlanta Braves right-hander has posted an MLB best 1.33 ERA.

(4) Zack Greinke has regained his 2009 AL Cy Young form after his first eight starts.  The right-hander makes his first appearance on the Top 5 F12 ranking.

(5) Ryan Dempster is a perfect example of why pitching win totals are overrated.  The veteran right-hander is winless this season despite compiling a 1.74 ERA and 0.97 WHIP after six starts.

***The Factor12 Top 12 in 2012 through games on May 17th:

PITCHERS

AGE

IP

F12

F12%

1

  SP Justin Verlander

29

58.33

31.009

0.255

2

  SP Gio Gonzalez*

26

48.67

30.949

0.253

3

  SP Brandon Beachy

25

54.00

30.865

0.250

4

  SP Zack Greinke

28

50.00

30.550

0.240

5

  SP Ryan Dempster

35

41.33

30.082

0.225

6

  SP Jered Weaver

29

54.00

30.054

0.224

7

  RP Aroldis Chapman*

24

20.33

30.024

0.223

8

  RP Alexi Ogando

28

22.00

29.945

0.220

9

  SP Matt Cain

27

57.33

29.880

0.218

10

  SP Jake Peavy

31

57.67

29.837

0.217

11

  SP Stephen Strasburg

23

48.00

29.808

0.216

12

  SP Roy Halladay

35

64.33

29.688

0.212
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Revisiting the DH

by Rick Swanson on May 18th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Posted In: Houston Astros, If I Were Commish, Rick Swanson

In 2013, the Houston Astros will be in the American League, making interleague play a daily occurrence.

Does that mean the league will take a new vote on the DH?

This week the MLB owner’s had one of their quarterly meetings in New York. What a perfect time to have a new discussion on the subject. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like it was even brought up.

What if baseball decided to drop the DH but add a 26th player to the roster?

A few years ago I wrote to Bill James and gave him a few reasons to drop the DH….

  • The rules state nine men on a side.
  • Managers should have to decide to pinch hit or let the pitcher bat.
  • Double switches are good for the game.
  • Pitchers would less likely throw at someone, if they had to face the same music themselves batting the next inning.
  • The media would get to critique more “manager’s decisions,” because there would be more decisions managers would have to make.
  • The game would move quicker, because there would be more pitching changes at the beginning of innings, because pitchers would be pinch hit for.

Mr. James responded:

“Well, if that’s your argument, shouldn’t you be arguing that the National League should adopt the DH rule? People present this as if the American League was the outlier, that nobody used the rule except the American League. The reality is that virtually every baseball league in the world, except the National League, has long since adopted the DH rule. Every, or virtually every college league, amateur league at a high level, the Japanese, the Australians. . . they have all long since adopted the DH rule. The entire baseball world uses the DH rule, except the National League. If you really think it is important to standardize this. . . which it isn’t, but that’s your argument. . . the obvious way to do it is to tell the National League to pull their head out of the 19th century.”

It sounds like Bill’s vote would be for the NL to adopt the DH.

How would you vote?

A. AL drops the DH
B. NL adopts the DH
C. Keep it like it has been since 1973

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Old Hoss

by Josh Robbins on May 14th, 2012 at 8:06 pm
Posted In: Factor12, History, Josh Robbins

What do you really know about Charles “Old Hoss” Radbourn other than his famous twitter account?

His 1884 season almost defies belief.  The Providence Grays right-hander displayed the greatest resolve and courage to compete in the history of baseball.

59-12 / 1.38 ERA / 678.67 IP / 0.92 WHIP / 73GS / 73CG / 11SHO / 441K / 98 BB

I just finished reading a biography entitled Fifty-Nine in ’84 by Edward Achorn, depicting the legendary 1884 season of Old Hoss and the Providence Grays.  It is a fascinating account portraying the most ferociously sustained season of pitching dominance in baseball history.

Nineteenth century baseball was a much different game played under dangerous conditions.  Most notably, barehanded baseball caused broken fingertips, bloodied hands, and unpredictable outcomes to individual plays.  This was part of the difficult environment to compete for baseball supremacy in this era.

Most teams carried only two pitchers on the roster, often leading to short careers and Herculean innings pitched totals.  Starting pitchers were expected to complete games and throw almost everyday.  However, Old Hoss displayed pitching stamina and pure grit to compete daily at a historic level.

“The punishing repetition pitch after pitch after pitch, day after day, without significant rest had surely started to wear down his rotator cuff.  Even after the pain had set in, searing his shoulder, jarring him awake several times a night, he had continued to pitch.”

Imagine starting almost every game from the July 31st trade deadline to the playoffs…. Old Hoss Radbourn not only performed this unbelievable pitching exhibition but also carried the Providence Grays to the National League pennant single-handedly.  During this stretch, the incomparable Radbourn compiled a 32-4 record with 36 CG leading the maligned franchise to an unexpected league title.

Following the regular season, the Grays faced off against the New York Metropolitans of the American Association in the first “World Series” ever played.   In the series, Radbourn continued his amazing campaign, winning all three games and allowing zero earned runs in 22 innings.

In the coming weeks, let’s see what the Factor12 Rating calculates for the 1884 season.

Old Hoss, you are truly legendary.

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Factor12 Rating Leaders: Week 5

by Josh Robbins on May 12th, 2012 at 8:53 am
Posted In: Chicago White Sox, Factor12, Josh Robbins, Los Angeles Angels, Sabermetrics, Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals

The Factor12 Rating (F12) is an analytic measurement utilizing league average performance to compare the value of all MLB pitchers.

Jered Weaver

(1) Jered Weaver retains the current top spot on the Factor12 Top12 in 2012 with a 32.589 rating. The Los Angeles Angels right-hander followed up his no-hitter against the Minnesota Twins with 6IP / 3H / 1ER / 2BB / 2K against the same Minneapolis squad. Weaver has compiled a 1.60 ERA and 0.79 WHIP during his first seven starts.

(2) Jake Peavy has regained his 2007 NL Cy Young form. The Chicago White Sox hurler has pitched outstanding baseball over his first seven starts of the season. Peavy has thrown 52.33 IP / 35H / 11ER / 7BB / 44K while posting a 1.89 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.

(3) Gio Gonzalez has baffled opposing hitters in his last five starts. The left-hander has thrown 33 IP / 13H / 3ER / 10BB / 35K. Gonzalez’ veteran presence has contributed to the Nationals’ best starting pitching in the game.

(4) Stephen Strasburg continues to dominate on the mound. The 23 year-old right-hander has pitched 44IP allowing two home runs, walking ten batters, and striking out an NL-leading fifty-one. The Washington Nationals ace trails the top spot by just .989 points.

(5) Felix Hernandez continued his dominating start to the 2012 season pitching 8IP / 1H 0ER / 2BB / 9K against the Minnesota Twins. The 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner holds a 31.195 F12 Rating.

***The Factor12 Top 12 in 2012 through games on May 10th:

PITCHERS

AGE

IP

F12

F12%

1

SP

 Jered Weaver

29

50.67

32.589

0.304

2

SP

 Jake Peavy

31

52.33

32.220

0.292

3

SP

 Gio Gonzalez

26

36.67

31.632

0.274

4

SP

 Stephen Strasburg

23

44.00

31.600

0.273

5

SP

 Felix Hernandez

26

52.33

31.195

0.261

6

SP

 Ryan Dempster

35

35.33

30.998

0.254

7

SP

 Justin Verlander

29

51.33

30.989

0.254

8

RP

 Alexi Ogando

28

16.67

30.547

0.240

9

SP

 Anibal Sanchez

28

40.33

30.160

0.227

10

SP

 Matt Cain

27

45.33

30.066

0.224

11

SP

 Zack Greinke

28

43.00

29.984

0.222

12

SP

 Johnny Cueto

26

48.33

29.859

0.218
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Call Him Up: CWS Champion CFs From USC

by Rick Swanson on May 11th, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Posted In: Boston Red Sox, Draft, History, Rick Swanson

In 1973, the Red Sox had the 41st pick in the amateur draft. The club used it to select Fred Lynn from USC. He played centerfield on the Trojans for four years, and all four years his team won the College World Series.

Side note: In 1973, USC played in maybe the most memorable college game ever. Dave Winfield had 15 strikeouts for Minnesota, had allowed just one infield single through eight innings, and led 7-0. A blown double-play call by the first base umpire opened the door for USC, who scored eight runs in the ninth inning to win 8-7, eliminating Minnesota from CWS.

Jackie Bradley Jr. at USC

As a 21 year-old college graduate, Lynn spent the remainder of the summer of ‘73 playing for the AA Bristol Red Sox at Muzzy Field. When Lynn was 22, he spent the season in AAA and made his first appearance in Boston that September.

In the 2011 draft, the Red Sox had the 40th pick. They selected a centerfielder from another USC (South Carolina) that won the CWS twice with him in the lineup, Jackie Bradley. Bradley might actually have outdone Lynn in Omaha, because he was named CWS Most Outstanding Player in his sophomore year.

The Red Sox of 2011 held back Bradley’s progress by only having him play in 10 games while he was 21. Fred Lynn played 53 games in AA when he was at the same age in 1973.

In 2012, Boston has started Jackie Bradley in the A Advanced Carolina League, where he has batted lead-off for the Salem Red Sox. His numbers have been off the charts.

He currently has an OPS of 1.056, hitting .369 with 21 RBI and 11 stolen bases. Bradley led off the game on May 8th with his third home run, and has more walks than strikeouts on the season. Jackie, a left-handed hitter, is batting .440 against lefties.

At age 22, Bradley seems so far away from Fenway, and Lynn was so close when he was the same age.

I can’t guarantee Bradley will have a year like Lynn did when he was 23, winning both ROY and MVP in a pennant winning season, but why not give him a chance?

At age 22, it seems as if the Red Sox would never bring Bradley to Boston, even if he batted .400 and had 50 stolen bases.

In other sports, if your resume said “Most Outstanding Player at the NCAA Championships”, you probably would begin your pro career directly on the team that drafted you.

Baseball, and the Red Sox in particular, always wait too long to bring up young talent.

In fact according to Gordon Edes, only two position players in the past 20 years have made it to the big league the same age or younger than Will Middlebrooks. They are Nomar Garciaparra and Dustin Pedroia.

Before that, you need to go back to 1975 to find Lynn and his partner in left field, a 22 year-old outfielder the Red Sox brought up to Boston named Jim Ed Rice. Rice, the other half of the “Gold Dust Twins”, was selected by the Red Sox as an 18 year-old with the 15th pick in the first round of the 1971 amateur draft.

Maybe the Red Sox will turn over a new leaf and bring up their next rising star, Jackie Bradley, and send him right to Boston.

The new Gold Dust Twins in 2012 could end up being Middlebrooks and Bradley. Unless they give the kids a chance, we will never know how good they might be.

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Josh Hamilton Adds Four-Homer Game To His Unbelievable Career

by C. Sven Jenkins on May 9th, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Posted In: Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Draft, History, Sven Jenkins, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers

Josh Hamilton added another incredible event to his career last night, when he homered four times in Baltimore.  Hamilton became just the 16th player to accomplish the feat that is rarer than a perfect game (19).

The career of the Rangers outfielder is almost unbelievable. His life has been a roller-coaster ride of astronomical success and unconscionable catastrophe. He is likely the most talented player in MLB, but also the one most ravaged by karma.

  • Hamilton began his baseball life in Raleigh, North Carolina, where he dominated the high school game.  Some scouts still say he is the best player they have ever seen.
  • In 2003, Hamilton was out of baseball, his career seemingly destroyed by drug addiction. He would not play baseball for three full years.
  • In 2006, finally free of drugs and alcohol, Josh returned to the Rays, where he made his first professional appearance, for the Hudson Valley Renegades, since 2002.
  • The Rays left Hamilton exposed to the Rule 5 draft that off-season, where he was selected by the Cubs and immediately sold to the Reds for $100K.
  • Hamilton slashed .292 / .368 / .554 with 19 home runs in 337 plate appearances for Cincinnati in 2007, in a successful rookie season, eight years after being selected 1-1.
  • Hamilton broke out in 2008, leading the AL with 130 RBI and made his first all-star team.
  • Hamilton’s appearance in the 2008 Home Run Derby at Yankee Stadium is stuff of legend. With Josh’s childhood BP pitcher, Clay Counsil, pitching to him, he launched 35 home runs, including 28 in the first round, and 13 consecutive.
  • On August 17, 2008, Hamilton was intentionally walked with the bases loaded, becoming just the sixth player in history to receive such a free pass.
  • Hamilton suffered his first alcohol related setback in 2009, and photographs of his drunken debauchery were splashed all over the internet.
  • MVP, 2010.  Hamilton led the AL in batting, slugging, and OPS. Hamilton continued hitting in the post-season as well, where the Rangers to a World Series appearance by winning the ALCS MVP Award against the Yankees.
  • Hamilton again helped lead the Rangers to their second consecutive World Series.  He was poised to be the World Series hero in Game Six, when playing with a groin injury, he hit a two-run home run off Jason Motte in the top of the 10th inning.  However, manager Ron Washington blew the game by taking out Neftali Feliz and utilizing the out-dated “no-doubles” defensive strategy, which allowed Lance Berkman‘s game-tying base hit to easily fall in front of Hamilton in centerfield.
  • Hamilton began 2012 with his second known alcohol relapse, when he was spotted at a Dallas bar. Hamilton has always been brutally honest about his alcoholism and drug addiction.
  • Hamilton has been a beast since the 2012 season began, and was named the AL Player of the Month for April.
  • Josh Hamilton is the real-life version of The Natural.
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Barnes Better Than Roger

by Rick Swanson on May 8th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Posted In: Boston Red Sox, Draft, Rick Swanson

How do you know when it’s time to bring up a young pitcher?

Matt Barnes, about to spin a breaking ball for UConn

If a pitcher has three years of NCAA baseball under his belt, should he start his pro career in the same league as 18 year-old kids right out of high school?

In 2011, the Boston Red Sox used the 19th pick in the first round of the amateur draft to select Matt Barnes, a right-handed pitcher from the University of Connecticut.

Barnes led the Huskies to the NCAA Regional Finals, losing to the eventual College World Series champion, South Carolina. Surely his experience was more than Boston’s 2nd pick in the first round, Blake Swihart (26th overall), an 18 year-old catcher from Rio Rancho, New Mexico.

Boston gave Barnes a $1.5M signing bonus and gave Swihart a $2.5M bonus. Presumably, the Red Sox logic in dolling out the larger sum to Swihart is due to the fact that he could have chosen to go to college. Swihart was committed to Texas. But by the same token, Barnes could have stayed for his senior year at UConn, and played on a team that nearly went to Omaha.

Both were assigned to the Greenville Drive in the South Atlantic League.

Swihart has struggled, batting .180 in what should be his freshman year of college.

Barnes started five games, pitched 26.67 innings, gave up one run, walked four, and struck out 42. Clearly, he was a man among boys.

Blake Swihart playing for Team USA

Boston moved Barnes up to the Class A Advanced, Salem Red Sox. There he has pitched one game, striking out 12 in six innings. He has an ERA of 0.55 and a WHIP of 0.62 on the 2102 season. He has 54 strikeouts and allowed just five walks all year.

Barnes turns 22 in June, and at the rate that Boston moves him up the ladder he might be in AA by that point.

So, why does a sport like basketball throw a 22 year-old kid onto an NBA court, but baseball looks at the same aged kid, and thinks he should start on the bottom rung of the ladder?

Barnes is putting up numbers that rival Roger Clemens, when he was 20 and pitching in the Red Sox farm system.

In 1983, after three years of college baseball, Roger threw 81 innings between A and AA ball, with 95 strikeouts and 12 walks, a WHIP of 0.82 and an ERA of 1.33. Clemens proved he was ready for The Show when he turned 21.

Barnes pitched his first game in Class A Advanced last Saturday night. The headlines in Salem, VA said it all. “Barnes Ks a Dozen in Dominant Debut: Boston’s First Round Pick Dazzles against Dash.”

How many fans do you think would have been in New Britain, CT to see Barnes if he had skipped A Advanced and gone to AA Portland, and pitched against the Rock Cats last Saturday?

Matt Barnes was raised in Bethel, CT, and then stayed close to home by going to pitch for UConn. Bethel and Storrs are each about a half hour away from where Barnes should have pitched last Saturday.

The way the pitching is going in Boston, maybe the best move the Red Sox could make would be to bring Barnes to Boston and skip AA and AAA.

At least when they have Connecticut Day in Fenway this year, the Sox could not only have their manager from CT, but also the most dominant at 21 year-old pitcher in the game.

The way the team is playing, the odds might be better for Barnes pitching in Boston than Bobby Valentine keeping his job as manager, by the time CT Day arrives in 2012.

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Hamels Loses Battle With Harper

by C. Sven Jenkins on May 8th, 2012 at 12:38 am
Posted In: If I Were Commish, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Sven Jenkins, Washington Nationals

Cole Hamels thinks he’s “old school”.

True "old school" baseball player, Bryce Harper, being congratulated after stealing home against Cole Hamels

Hamels hit Bryce Harper with a pitch in the first inning of last night’s game in Washington, D.C., on purpose, with the goal of “sending a message” to the Nationals rookie.

Well, Bryce Harper got the message, weak as it was, and then he shoved it right back in Cole’s face when he stole home on him later in the inning.

Here’s my message to Hamels…. if you have to tell the media and the world that you were trying to send a message by plunking someone, that means you did a pretty horseshit job of sending it in the first place.

Hamels’ public admission to hitting Harper with a pitch was clearly done to pump up his own ego.  It was a lame attempt to try and get everyone to believe he is actually a tough guy.  Nationals GM, Mike Rizzo, called Hamels “fake tough”, and he is right.

Hamels also thought that he, himself, was intentionally hit by a pitch later in the game.  Unfortunately for Hamels’ ego, he was wrong again.  Jordan Zimmermann was trying to throw an outside fastball and simply missed his target.  Zimmermann’s reaction was of disgust with himself, not of satisfaction in hitting Hamels.  The Nats will have plenty of time to retaliate for Harper’s beaning this season, and they’ll do it by going after one of the Phillies everyday players that actually matter, not Hamels.

Here are some more notes on dirty Philadelphia Phillies players from tonight’s game against the Mets….

Screenshot of Shane Victorino, properly called out for interference on Justin Turner

Shane Victorino was called out tonight for interference when he attempted to take out Mets shortstop, Justin Turner, in the bottom of the seventh inning.  Umpire, Ron Kulpa, made the correct call, which gave the Mets an inning-ending double play, and ultimately saved the game for them.  Victorino has always been called a “hard-nosed” player, but in reality he’s just a dirty player that will cheap-shot middle infielders.

Unnecessary take out slides have resulted in numerous injuries over the last few years, to both the fielders and the runners.  Those injuries include concussions to Justin Morneau and Ryan Church, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka‘s broken leg, among many others.

The following inning it was Ty Wigginton‘s turn, this time it was a cheap-shot on the catcher, Josh Thole.  Wigginton attempted to score from third base on a high chopper back to the mound.  Bobby Parnell made the play and fed Thole with the throw.  Wigginton actually slid into home plate and was tagged out.  But, Wigginton finished his slide by popping up and intentionally throwing his shoulder into Thole.  The shoulder caught the side of his face and laid Thole out for a couple of minutes.

MLB needs to change its policy, or lack thereof, on these unnecessary collisions at both home plate and second base.  With the increased attention to concussions and head injuries, coupled with Buster Posey‘s near career-ending injury last year, it’s time to end the tough guy attitude nonsense and get that type of play out of the game of baseball.

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